Should AI be used to determine the CFP?

If there is one thing people in America like more than barbeque and scrolling on social media, its football. Specifically, college football, which has become one of the nation’s biggest spectacles with spectator sizes and viewer ratings rivaling the NFL. College football in the past few years has become known for unpredictability, passion driven attitude, and ‘crazy’ fans.

This past season, college football made significant changes to their national championship tournament, the College Football Playoff (CFP). The playoffs expanded to a 12-team bracket—it had featured just four teams in years prior. However, with all that excitement comes controversy. For years, people have been arguing about the selection process of these teams. What’s the criteria? Who’s making these decisions? Why is my team not in it despite beating (insert team names here)?

AI may or may not the answer. New technologies have transformed the higher education sports world. Rich Clark, the CFP executive director, didn’t rule out the use of AI in the CFP decision-making process. After all, if AI is getting used in the classroom and in the workplace, why not use it for this purpose?

While that argument may seem straightforward, let’s dive into the pros and cons of using AI for such a massive decision-making process. After all, using AI technology for something like choosing the CFP teams was completely untested.

Benefits of using AI

1. Data Analysis. AI is already helping teams prepare strategies for upcoming games using performance data. Data-driven statistics and interpretation can ensure that the decision-making process is based on clear, measurable metrics. Certain statistics, such as strength of schedule, have been hard to navigate and could leave room for human biases. Using AI to calculate and interpret these stats removes the human error that could influence rankings.
2. Transparency. In the current ranking system, people often get confused why teams are ranked as high or low as they are. If the AI data is made public, there will be more understanding of the ranking process, which will allow teams and fans to understand exactly how decisions are made. That eventually may lead to more trust in the CFP as a whole.
3. Predictive Power. Completely using statistic-driven data may not be enough. There could be other factors that can determine if the best teams are in the playoff. AI is being used in numerous industries to predict the future. To that end, AI models could leverage performance data from historical match ups between football programs to offer predictive insights on which teams would perform best on ‘the big stage.’

Drawbacks of using AI

This may seem overly simple, but leaving these types of decisions to AI means the computer makes the final call, which lacks human judgement and emotional connection. Qualitative data is only a small part of the picture. For example, teams may rest starters against weaker opponents, leading to skewed data. Also, the consistency of emotion shown on the field can lead to game-defining penalties. AI, as powerful as it has become, may not be able to count for momentum shifts throughout the season, the impact of a standout player, or the resilience a team can show in tough situations. These are all things that deal with the human aspect of sports that cannot be seen through data.

The Solution

Human error when analyzing data is certainly prevalent. But statistics will always be a massive part of identifying teams’ performances, and you cannot undermine the human impact within sports. College football’s unpredictability often stems from human emotion—history has shown the worst team can beat the best if the former wants it more.

The role of AI in the college football rankings should be complimentary to human judgement. Statistics and data can be calculated and analyzed to prevent human error, but the CFP committee needs to supplement that data with their own judgment to determine the rankings.

AI is a technology that is growing and evolving not just in sports and higher education, but everywhere. This a fantastic example of the questions being raised on how we should integrate this exciting new technology. Human judgement cannot be replicated by a computer. However, empowering people with AI-driven data can lead to results that won’t just change football, but transform the world.

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Author: Aaron Oman